how to make an educated guess.

Renee asked
"heyy nanna,I was just wondering what you meant by guess?" Well, deciding which one to invest in - is really making a thoughtful guess.. because there is no sure way to predict the future... tea leaves and crystal balls not included.
when I make a guess (or trying to decide if I should buy) I look up each company in asx /company research and get the full page which shows announcements etc.
www.asx.com.au
then prices/company research/
I have the list of companies beside me so I can take notes. I give each a plus or a minus, or put them on a scale of 1-10.

The first thing I do in this case, is look at the chart for any spikes.. then I go back to the announcements around the time of the spike. A spike in the price means that there was big buying.. so I want to know why. It could be after a company announcement at their shareholders meeting, where the general manager will give talk or a presentation on what/where/when/why the company intends to go and do.

I look at the spread in the high and low for the year (on the little price chart.)
I am interested if this company is rising or falling in it's share price? Are they at a low? could they be expected to rise back to their high? or go higher? I look at volume, which tells me how many shares are being bought or sold.

I also look at yahoo and type in the finance investing section the code plus .ax (.ax means aussie stock not a US stock)
eg say GDA.ax and it comes up with all their information. You can learn to understand their finance details, look at their profile, and especially look at ownership and inside transactions. to see who has been buying. Of course some of these are not up to date, but some are.

go to http://au.finance.yahoo.com/
and look at the sidebar.

for example I went there and typed in BMX.AX and this is their page.
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BMX.AX&x=12&y=9

Now in this case there was a spike. and no announcement. So why? did they know something about the vic government announcement? which can be read on ...Here is an link to the story.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2312137.htm

I might also write to the finance/investing stock talk forum
http://au.messages.yahoo.com/finance/finance_stocktalk/

I read what others are saying and I ask questions. someone answered with this link
http://www.morningstargold.com.au/images/mornstar- --aipho.pdf MCO

In this case I have also looked at the vic governments minerals website. I noticed that a few companies have been mentioned. like Dart mining, DTM . They had a big spike too at the same time. so I follow them up. Their share price went from 11c to 20c now 18cents.
I'm still on the GO GOLD GO hunt so I put them all on a watchlist in Yahoo and put in their current prices, and 1000 shares each. I will watch these to see if any suddenly increase. although I really want to buy a few before they spike, to increase our chances.

Another thing I do is checkout the high volume or gainers for the day on Yahoo and asx.
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/gainers?e=AX I f you have a watchlist, your codes will be highlighted in pink.

I could also google some keyword like "victorian gold find mining companies involved" and then follow through. It does take time, but research is what increases your chances of being right.

A good guess is better than a bad guess. I call it an educated guess.
That's is what this blog is about. learning, sharing, educating.

Gold rush is on

The Gold rush is on....go to this story and have a look at potentially the biggest gold deposits ever found in Australia.

Don't forget to promote my shares newsletter to your friends dads and Mums... $1.00 a week for emailed hot tips. 52.00 a year is all it takes.!
the email me at mailto:sampsms@ozemail.com.au and say sign me up for tips, and i reply with a pay pal button. they check and click and pay with pay pal..It's sp easy and it will help fund this portfolio.

story here
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2312137.htm

Then try to hunt down, the companies which might be exploring this area.
There may be more than one. I do know that SML Synergy metals - are one working in the area north of Bendigo. Right now they are cheap.. last week they were 4cents. check them out on the asx.
Look up others and see if you can find a good prospect. see if they would be worth some of yours (and mine) hard earned savings. you could try SML, BDG, MYC,MCO, HEG, GDR, GBM, CGT if you check then out in yahoo you have to add .ax to the code in the finance /investing pages. It just means aussie stocks.
The race is on kids... get moving.. Be part of a modern day internet gold rush...

Good news, bad news, good news.

Hi kids,

Well the bad news first.
GDA Gondwanna had a consolidation a few months ago - where they reduced everyones' shares by 1:10. That means the 1000 I gave you is now only 100. But in theory they should have been now 30 cents each instead of 3 cents. (ie price when it happened.)
But they fell instead, and even now are not worth 10 times what I paid, (which was 5cents ea. = $50.00)
so WHY do they do a consolidation? probably they think they will look better if their shares are "worth" more than 3 cents. Maybe it reduces the shares issued and they can issue more later. I'm not sure. You investigate and tell me. But I prefer to have 35,000 instead of the now 3500, because I can sell some (if they double by 100% to 6 cents and still keep some.) The chances of a doubling from 30 cents to 60 cents in one go is lower.

Good news 1. This week, GDA sent notice of giving some free shares and some options. 1:8 shares plus 3 options for every 5 shares held. so you do your maths. how many of these free ones will be yours? based on your now share portfolio number of 100.

Good news 2. I feel bad, so I am giving you all another 900 shares in any of the companies below. HAW, AOS, EGO, EXM, GPN, LKO, MBP, MHL, MPJ, NWT, QUR, SML, RBY.
I hope and expect you will investigate them on the www.asx.com.au website.
LOOK AND SEE WHAT THEY DO, and decide which one you think has the best prospects for the shares TO RISE AND MAKE A PROFIT.

I want you to realise that while you can read, you can learn, and earn.

Then you must email me and say what company and its code, you want. I'll be interested to see what companies you think are the best ones in this group of 13. I am hoping you will be able to answer a few questions, based on the Learners and P platers pages linked below, because this is how you learn. You could even just Google them (by their full names) or go to Yahoo.com.au and checkout their codes in finance and investing.

You must reply to receive.
Hurry, don't miss out.
bye for now,
Nanny (your Granny)

A cobweb can be a metaphor for many things. especially the web - the Internet - which has little search engine spiders crawling all over it for new feed..

I watched the BBC David Attenboroughs "Life in the Undergrowth" and he exposed a lot of things about spiders..
some - like the trapdoor, jump out at their prey, others like the Aussie red back make vertical curtain webs to catch insects.

Others make a large single web which they defend against the smaller thief spiders, who come and steal their "catch of the day". The small ones creep across the web, anchor the prey, and cut the lines, and make their escape.

Still others, are more collaborative, and they build masses of cobwebs all connected to each other.
They are small spiders (English ones) BUT their MASSIVE cobweb can catch a small bird and then they have a meal big enough to share. Which they do!
They are a community, much like the internet.
When we collaborate and share, we can achieve much more.