Rich kids Poor kids

FINANCIAL THEORY 101 AND RISK

2011-02-10T20:20:00.000-08:00

here's an article from Marcus Padley. It's about risk. Maybe you kids ought to learn this NOW, not when you are old. read the last few lines anyway. It might put life into perspective!
Finacial risk 101
(101 usually means the first class in the subject at Uni.)
"Many people get lost when it comes to risk. What is risk? It's actually quite simple. But before you go off and plot everything with a return against how risky it is, i urge you to consider this.There is a natural assumption in almost every aspect of life, from playing a cricket shot to investing in the stock market, that there is a trade off between risk and return.

Nice concept but many people get lost when it comes to risk. What is risk? It's actually quite simple. In the financial world it is the difference between an investment whose returns fluctuate wildly and one that doesn't.

Risky business

Take two stocks. Both return an average of 5% a year. But one stock's annual return deviates from the average by 2% a year (so it can return 3% to 7% in any given year) and the other one deviates by as much as 10% a year (so it returns anywhere from minus 5% to plus 15%). Clearly the first one is pretty predictable and the second one is jumping around all over the place. It is much more risky. It is called standard deviation. But you can't tell that from the average return alone how risky something is. That's why, to judge the suitability of an investment, you need to calculate standard deviation as well. It is a measure of the volatility of returns or in common parlance, risk. It is a measure of how reliable your returns are.

Now back to risk and reward. If you can measure the average return (the reward) and compare that to the standard deviation (risk) and do that for every possible investment in the world and plot them on a chart of expected return compared to standard deviation (risk) then you start to get a picture of what you should and shouldn't be investing in.

Risk & reward

In a perfect world, a world that matched risk to returns without error there would be a straight line from the bottom left hand corner of the chart (low risk low return) to the top right hand corner (high risk high return). We have been trained by hitting cricket balls and by betting with bookies to expect this. Bookies after all derive the odds, or expected returns, straight from the level of risk. Bookies are a pure example of an efficient risk reward realtionship.

But before you go off and plot everything with a return against how risky it is let me just finish the lesson with one final addition to the chart. There is a base line all financial investments have to compare to. It's called the risk free rate. It's a simple thing. It's the return you can earn without any risk at all.

Traditionally in the investment markets this is represented by the return on Government Bonds. The 5 year bond yield is currently 5.3% and the 10 year 5.5%. So theoretically you can draw a straight line across your chart at a return of around 5.3% to 5.5% and any investment whose expected return is less than that that isn't risk free can be instantly discarded. Why invest in a risky investment that returns less than a riskless investment. Pointless.

Tax, fees & inflation

Where this gets interesting of course is when something plots above or below the lines. When the expected return does not match the risk. When an investment turns up as high return low risk, or low return high risk. They would stand out on the chart and be invested in immediately or discarded as stupidity.

So lets look at a few investments before tax, fees and inflation:

The stock market: Expected return of 9.38% (5.88% plus 3.5% from dividends). Risk 7 out of 10.
Bonds: Ten year return of 5.52%. Risk zero.
Borrowing money to invest in the market: Expected return of 9.38% less interest of 9.75% (tax deductible) = minus 0.37%. Risk 7 out of 10.
Paying off the mortgage: Pretax return of 7.81% (Standard variable rate) which grosses up to 10.6% pretax. Risk zero.
Marriage: Expected average return of one extra income, zero to four kids, two possible inheritances, a free life coach even if you don't need one, onerous school fees and a dog. Risk: Long term love, fulfillment and satisfaction.
Divorce: Expected return of minus 50%. Risks as yet unknown.

Now all you have to do now is work out how much risk you are prepared to take out of 10 and the investments you make in life will pick themselves.

Marcus Padley is a stockbroker with Patersons Securities and the author of the daily stockmarket newsletter Marcus Today. For a free trial of the newsletter, go to http://www.marcustoday.com.au/

Marcus Padley Stockmarket Secrets is a book for the current financial climate. With global markets crumbling, and many of the world’s leading markets entering into depression – the likes of which we’ve never experienced before – the time is ripe for a straight-shooting approach to money, wealth and investment.

I'd like to be optimistic but I'm not.

2011-01-29T20:58:00.000-08:00

HI,
As long as you can read and write, and move and see, you can learn.
You need to learn so you will be able to survive and make sense of this world.

I want to be able to say something optimistic, but I can't.

I think it's time to sell off and cash in all profits. asap

If you go to www.google.com/finance, and search the S&P200, do a technical KDJ analysis, it showed on the J, on friday about 1pm, that the
A ords is oversold. it was above the 80. It's a sign to sell and not buy. Just
one of many signs.

(google finance is a great free tool for using technical analysis. Learn by doing there, but go via internet explorer. Mozilla somehow doesn't allow you to do the technical analysis, neither does Yahoo finance. )

I think the Global economy is in serious trouble.
I hope I'm wrong, I really hope so

The A ords closed at 4875 on Friday 28.1.11 with a drop of 34 points, all
markets dropped.(the asx S&P200 dropped too. its about 100 points less.

I don't think you can dismiss these drops as a correction after 8 weeks of aus
rises. I don't think you can blame the riots in Egypt, or the closure of
more banks in the USA this week.

My thoughts are it is a reflection of pessimism and the revelations that
arose from the GFC this week that the regulators and
top management do not actually know what caused the GFC or how to fix, or
even how to avoid it in future.

google recent GFC investigations 24.1.2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/business/economy/28inquiry.html

and see 1929 data below.

US market in Review: World market Crashed due to the Political unrest in
Egypt
29 January 2011 ref
http://galaxystocks.com/4595/sector-summary/us-market-in-review-world-market-crashed-due-to-the-political-unrest-in-egypt/

S&P 500 had it's biggest decline in the history of since August, US economy
faced the challenging among the trade due to the political uncertainty in
Egypt and huge fell of Ford motor and Amazon shares.

Three major NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices were attempted to stable
the market but failed to perform well and lost the investor confidence
because investor are looking for safety for their investment. Even no single
indices were closed above the trend line during last session of trade.

Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -1.39% or -166.13 points to 11,823.70
however it exhibited a positive quarterly performance of +248.16 points or
2.14% which continued to remain up for half year with +1325.82 points or
12.63% and YTD performance firmed at +246.19 points or 2.13%.

S&P 500 INDEX, RTH declined -1.79% or -23.20 points to 1,276.34 however it
exhibited a positive quarterly performance of +17.83 points or 1.42% which
continued to remain up for half year with +170.21 points or 15.39% and YTD
performance firmed at +18.7 points or 1.49%.

NASDAQ Composite declined -2.48% or -68.39 points to 2,686.89 however it
exhibited a positive quarterly performance of +179.52 points or 7.16% which
continued to remain up for half year with +422.33points or 18.65% and YTD
performance firmed at +34.02 points or 1.28%.

so what can you do?
Make your own MOPI - MY own personal Indicator.

I/we started trading just before the Global financial crisis (GFC) in August
2007.

The A Ord was at 6830. (you can find the historical figures on the
www.asx.com.au)

I think of the scale like stairs, 1 - 9 NINE BEING the top without a
landing. step 5 is good, steps 6 - 7 excellent. 8-9 it may be about to
burst. But steps 3-4 require more research and much caution.

In 2007 we were going up fast toward a bust, it was rising too sharply and
too high.

In January 2008 there were huge unexpected problems in the USA, and in July
2009 it fell to 3111.

It has been up and down since. Halfway between both extremes is my midpoint.

You may not agree with this time frame so make your own YOPI - (Your own
personal indicator.. (MOPI =My Own personal Indicator.)

To calculate your own YOPI take the period you think is a good reflection of
the global market then the record the highest daily result less the lowest.
divide by 2 and add the result to the lowest. Note the historical figures
will change so you need to re do your YOPI every 3-6 months.

My Mopi.

Since 1.07.2007 The highest UPPER was 6853. The LOWEST 3111. 1871 on top of
the lowest of 3111= 4982

Right now it is BELOW at 4800 .

IT'S NOT ABOVE MY MID POINT. THE MARKET is still shaky.

My current MOPI is 4970. That is my worry line. That's a Decision time.

I take in all the indications on the chart and finally look at the market
points, and deduct my MOPI. If the result is above my 4962 points, I'm
happy. Right now its not.

Here's some sobering thoughts . ref
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

" Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his or
her adult life pass by before getting back to even. "

-Richard M. Salsman[3]

The Roaring Twenties, the decade that led up to the Crash,[4] was a time of
wealth and excess. Despite caution of the dangers of speculation, many
believed that the market could sustain high price levels. Shortly before the
crash, economist Irving Fisher famously proclaimed, "Stock prices have
reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[5] However, the
optimism and financial gains of the great bull market were shattered on
"Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, when share prices on the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE) collapsed. Stock prices plummeted on that day, and continued
to fall at an unprecedented rate for a full month.[6]

The October 1929 crash came during a period of declining real estate values
in the United States (which peaked in 1925)[citation needed] near the
beginning of a chain of events that led to the Great Depression, a period of
economic decline in the industrialized nations.

The October 1929 crash came during a period of declining real estate values
in the United States (which peaked in 1925)[citation needed] near the
beginning of a chain of events that led to the Great Depression, a period of
economic decline in the industrialized nations.

In the days leading up to "Black Thursday" (called "Black Friday" in Europe
due to the time difference) and "Black Tuesday" the following week, the
market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes of trading
were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery.
Economist and author Jude Wanniski later correlated these swings with the
prospects for passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which was then being
debated in Congress.[7] After the crash, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJIA) partially recovered in November-December 1929 and early 1930, only to
reverse and crash again, reaching a low point of the great bear market in
1932. On July 8, 1932, the Dow reached its lowest level of the 20th century
and did not return to pre-1929 levels until November 1954.[8][9]

Meg

so you want to make a million dollars?

2010-03-22T18:23:00.000-07:00

We bought some AXT shares AT .002 (1/5 OF A CENT) LAST SEPTEMBER 09, AND THEY ARE NOW .065C (6 AND A HALF CENTS). UP 209%.. but OF COURSE WE DIDN'T INVEST ENOUGH MONEY TO MAKE A MILLION. (we didn't want to take such a risk) AND WE DON'T KNOW IF THIS COMPANY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE RISING. That's the risk.
Share trading is full of risk. So why not put your money into one of the top 100 companies? becasue you're not likely to get such a rise in your investment. you might get a 10% increase in a solid company.. maybe 20%.. but even that won't make a million.
I agree with Marcus (see below) you need to start a business, learn about tax and accounting, invest your spare cash and TRY to gradually build a million.
you can join other traders in forums like http://crazyjimsmith.blogspot.com
and get good advice.It's worth the investment.

here's an article on the subject by Marcus Padley.ref marcus padley 23.03.2010
someone wrote
"I have $10,000 and want to turn it into a million dollars. How do I do it?" Marcus Padley (respected share trader) demonstrates how you can achieve this goal by taking advantage of the stockmarket.
I got an email this week. I ask for Stupid Questions in my newsletter and I get them. "I have $10,000 and want to turn it into a million dollars. How do I do it?"
You're thinking "How Stupid" but it's actually a really good question. So let's try and answer it.
First thing to do is to accept that you will not achieve this goal without being prepared to lose all your money. You will not achieve it in the bank, in cash, in property or in managed funds. There is no "average" return in any asset class that will suit you. You need to win Tatts Lotto or place and win some long odds bet at the bookies.
Outside that you have two options. Build a business, the most sensible option and the real answer to the question, or the stockmarket. The stockmarket appears to be less effort so let's look at that.
If you try to achieve this goal in the stockmarket you will not do it through diversification. A "portfolio" is not for you. You will only achieve it through two techniques. The first is to find one stock, one fantastic "Rocket under a Rock" and ride it to a million. Or two, get a lot of stocks right consistently over a long period of time, in other words you need to develop a trading system and build the capital by consistently successful trading over a long long period of time.
If you are going to build a trading system you have a lot of work to do. You'll have to get your head in the trading game. That means getting an education in how to trade and buying the software to do it.
If you are going to do it in one stock then here are a few numbers. To turn $10,000 into $1,000,000 you need a stock that goes up 100 fold. That's a 10,000% return. In the All Ords at this very moment (about 500 stocks) there are exactly 60 stocks that have in their trading histories, if you timed it perfectly from all time low to all time high, returned more than 10,000 percent. That's a lot better odds than you might imagine. That's 12% of stocks. Here are some of the highlights:
Biggest and fastest rises in history:

Fortescue Metals. Turned $10,000 into $73,166,166 between September 1990 and June 2008. 17.8 years. This is the biggest single return of any stock over any period in the All Ords.
UXC Limited. The fastest of all. Turned $10,000 into $6,000,000 between June 1998 and March 2000 in the Tech boom (it was called Davnet at the time). 1.8 years.
Paladin. Turned $10,000 into $13,500,000 between April 2003 and April 2007. 4.0 years. Third biggest return and the third fastest.

Other stocks have done remarkable things with $10,000 include News Corp. which turned it into $26,692,393 in 25.4 years. BHP into $2,543,468 in 42.2 years. QBE $12,165,775 in 32.7 years. Others that have achieved it include ANZ, RIO, Woodside, Origin, Santos, Leighton Holdings. Coca-Cola Amatil, Lend Lease. The list goes on.
Bottom line, it is possible. But it will not be easy and it could take 42 years. And I ask, how on earth are you going to stop yourself selling when you have doubled your money to $20,000. And what are you going to do when it falls on day one. And the big one....which stock do I start with?
I have written before about how pitiful the real average return from the stockmarket actually is post tax, inflation, transaction costs, management costs and the index fudge and because of that the stockmarket is not about averages and diversification, it is about timing and buying stocks that go up.
The pursuit of $1,000,000 with $10,000, as unrealistic as it is, is the essence of what this game and the advice game is all about. It's not about pretending to be fund manager, hiding in the average and relying on the long term. There are no free lunches. It's about finding stocks that go up and avoiding stocks that go down. It's about thinking it's possible and applying yourself to the task. Even if you come up 9900% short, you've still doubled your money. "

REMEMBER: This is not financial advice. YOU TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK. you are responsible for your own decisions. I/We could be wrong.. no one can see into the future.. not even you..

It's September and there is some confidence showing

2009-09-08T23:02:00.000-07:00

After nearly 18months of bad share trading, ( a BEAR market) confidence seems to be returning and the market is rising again. (the BEAR is turning into a BULL and we hope there is a stampede by the herd which will push prices up.)This confidence is because America seems to be improving and although their unemployment rate is still high, people are buying houses again. (but can they afford the sure- to- rise interest rates?) Right now there are still many cheap shares under ten cents.

I recovered all the losses last month, and we made over 5000.00 profit on the shares I recommended. they were ABY.AX (bought at 11 cents and sold at 1.oo)
and MCW.AX bought at 17 cents and sold at 63 cents.
many of the under ten cents shares are rising slowly. so the message is:
if you invest $500.00 and a 1 cent share doubles, then you double your money and make another $500.00 plus get your investment back.
But of course you have to buy the right shares.. so what "sector" is likely to rise? energy, mining, food , banks, etc?? and what can we afford to buy with 500.00? That is the question.

Ask yourself, what has sold well before and dropped in the recession.? what was the previous high and low for the year (or check for two years). what has risen recently? so who knows what? why are people buying this particular stock?
go to the www.asx.com.au , check in the market statistics for volume each day. (after 4.30pm) see what rose and write down the companies that were cheap. then go to company research and look at their graph. Then go to www.yahoo.com. and type into the finance section the code plus .ax, example aby.ax and see the information quoted. you could also goto google to see how much money the company has.. it really needs to have a few million in the bank. say 50 mill. that is called capitalisation. too low and they might go broke, and you will lose all your money..
to learn more you can visit the pages at www.asx.com.au for heaps of free learning.
Making money on the share market is a JOB. you earn your money because you do research.
you do take risks, but you spread your risk by not putting all your eggs in one basket.

best of luck .Mega

Hows the shares going?

2009-08-10T17:15:00.000-07:00

Over the last 12 months, "Your" stocks and our portfolio had a hammering in the biggest global meltdown in 75 years.
The whole portfolio fell as much as 89% !!!OUCH!! Gosh-Darn- Blankety-Heck!
It has recovered to only about a overall loss of 38%. BUT there have been some big gains which offset some big losses, and total wipeouts like ABC Learning.(they went bankrupt) Tax wise,these are called unrealised profits/losses and can be claimed and can reduce tax paid in your job (when you get one) so learn about tax.

Lesson 1. learn to read, write and add up. then learn about tax law.
lesson 2. Learn about managment and managing teams and people. learn to give a win-win result. Learn to be a good coach. Then when you have a business you will be able to get the best out of your team.

The Australian market is rising and it seems that the recovery is on its way, however the American unemployment figures (or Australias) may not be as good as they seem. Therefore the result may not be as rosy as suggested.
They may be counting part timers and casuals as "real jobs".
There may be more pain to come. BUT if you/we buy wisely now, you should make money in the longer term.
Another thing to consider is inflation. as soon as the real estate starts rising, inflation will push up prices and interest rates.. what is cheap today may be expensive tomorrow, especially money owed and interest payments.

I bought ABY for 12 cents in April and now they are about 79 cents. Their price 12 months ago was 2.30.
I also purchased MCW for 17 cents and they are now around 56 cents. NWT is rising and at 7 cents should give a good profit in the next 12 months. There are heaps of others. it's just a matter of being able to buy and hold, without using a margin loan.
But it might be a rough and scary ride , so don't invest all your eggs in one basket and only buy minimal amounts.And Dont forget htere are plenty of Crooks in the share market. Takeovers, consolidations, and even compulsory buying back of your shares.

and Remember..I could be wrong. so do your own homework. make your own decisions. as the great guru, WarrenBuffet says, "eat your own cooking"

The best way to learn about the sharemarket is to pretend to have a portfolio. you can make a watch list in yahoo or on the www.asx.com.au and watch your shares rise /fall . there are even educational sections to teach you. I wish I'd learnt all this when I was young, but I had no idea the sharemarket even existed. That's why I write this blog.

Mega

Remember we are not financial advisors.. Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only...We are Assett Management Consultants- we teach you about risk and how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach. Ref standards: AS/NZS/ISO 9001, AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.

well kids, your shares are still down

2009-03-10T14:35:00.000-07:00

Your shares dropped as much as 79% in this huge global crash .. but I think the market has turned.. on 19.2.09 and is on the way to recovery..
It will take a while, but in the meantime ignore all the negative talk and start saving...

Rich kids feel poor

2009-01-11T19:57:00.000-08:00

I thought with the last year (2008) sharemarket crash, that the grandkids would be sworn off their shares.. I mentioned casually, "well, I would've given you all more shares for your birthday or Christmas, but I guessed that you wouldnt be interested."

Three teenagers put up their hands. "Yes please we're interested".
Lloyd asked.. "but weren't they all worthless?"
His mother interjected, "yes, they fell but we havent sold and now they are rising.. the sharemarket is in recovery."

So capitalism is still alive and well, and hope still sparkes!

That's good, because it means they realise that you have to continue to look to the future, and what happened yesterday, does not always predict what might happen tomorrow.

Here is a good place for information .. and its free

2008-11-23T19:12:00.001-08:00

We suggest that you go here for good up to date information at Australasian Investment Review. www.aireview.com.au and sign up for free. We recommend that you look at Dr Shane Oliver's insights and newsletters. He is Head of Investment Strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital investors. To save any subscription money, just Google his name or go free to http://www.aireview.com.au/ There appears to be many companies referencing or linking to Dr Shane Oliver's opinions, including Eureka report, etc and he certainly appears to be "on the money" (correct). Look back in his archives to see his earlier opinions. You don't have to reinvent the wheel, by starting your research from scratch.. you just need to find ethical and honest articles and opinions, read and evaluate what they have to say. Learn as much as you can, then make your own judgement. Remember we are not financial advisors.. Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only... We are Assett Management Consultants- We attempt to teach you about risk & how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach. Reference to standards: AS/NZS/ISO 9001, AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.

It's august - 1 month into the new financial year

2008-08-03T19:31:00.000-07:00

Food costs are up, Petrol is up, share market is down. There's gloom and doom everywhere.
Let's take a break from the sharemarket training and have a look at our "Musos" site.
When things are bad- get creative!

go to http://www.triplejozmusos.blogspot.com

Even Muscians NEED to learn how to set up their music business, how to keep records, how to maximise their costs and get a tax refund. They also need to know about copyright law, and how to protect themselves from lawsuits. part of running a business means that y ou keep up to date with the laws of the land. You have to pay tax ... and that means keep records.
" Give to caesar what is caesar's" .
Musos also need to understand contract law and to read agreements.
Learning to negotiate and get a win-win result is extremely important. It's a skill.
We will help you.
write to Sean at www.myspace.com/obscura and look at Lloyd (the singer) at his photos and drawings at www.deviantart.com/vichild
contact us at sampsms@ozemail.com.au

how to make an educated guess.

2008-07-29T20:53:00.000-07:00

Renee asked
"heyy nanna,I was just wondering what you meant by guess?" Well, deciding which one to invest in - is really making a thoughtful guess.. because there is no sure way to predict the future... tea leaves and crystal balls not included.
when I make a guess (or trying to decide if I should buy) I look up each company in asx /company research and get the full page which shows announcements etc.
www.asx.com.au
then prices/company research/
I have the list of companies beside me so I can take notes. I give each a plus or a minus, or put them on a scale of 1-10.

The first thing I do in this case, is look at the chart for any spikes.. then I go back to the announcements around the time of the spike. A spike in the price means that there was big buying.. so I want to know why. It could be after a company announcement at their shareholders meeting, where the general manager will give talk or a presentation on what/where/when/why the company intends to go and do.

I look at the spread in the high and low for the year (on the little price chart.)
I am interested if this company is rising or falling in it's share price? Are they at a low? could they be expected to rise back to their high? or go higher? I look at volume, which tells me how many shares are being bought or sold.

I also look at yahoo and type in the finance investing section the code plus .ax (.ax means aussie stock not a US stock)
eg say GDA.ax and it comes up with all their information. You can learn to understand their finance details, look at their profile, and especially look at ownership and inside transactions. to see who has been buying. Of course some of these are not up to date, but some are.

go to http://au.finance.yahoo.com/
and look at the sidebar.

for example I went there and typed in BMX.AX and this is their page.
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BMX.AX&x=12&y=9

Now in this case there was a spike. and no announcement. So why? did they know something about the vic government announcement? which can be read on ...Here is an link to the story.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2312137.htm

I might also write to the finance/investing stock talk forum
http://au.messages.yahoo.com/finance/finance_stocktalk/

I read what others are saying and I ask questions. someone answered with this link
http://www.morningstargold.com.au/images/mornstar- --aipho.pdf MCO

In this case I have also looked at the vic governments minerals website. I noticed that a few companies have been mentioned. like Dart mining, DTM . They had a big spike too at the same time. so I follow them up. Their share price went from 11c to 20c now 18cents.
I'm still on the GO GOLD GO hunt so I put them all on a watchlist in Yahoo and put in their current prices, and 1000 shares each. I will watch these to see if any suddenly increase. although I really want to buy a few before they spike, to increase our chances.

Another thing I do is checkout the high volume or gainers for the day on Yahoo and asx.
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/gainers?e=AX I f you have a watchlist, your codes will be highlighted in pink.

I could also google some keyword like "victorian gold find mining companies involved" and then follow through. It does take time, but research is what increases your chances of being right.

A good guess is better than a bad guess. I call it an educated guess.
That's is what this blog is about. learning, sharing, educating.

Gold rush is on

2008-07-27T19:38:00.000-07:00

The Gold rush is on....go to this story and have a look at potentially the biggest gold deposits ever found in Australia.

Don't forget to promote my shares newsletter to your friends dads and Mums... $1.00 a week for emailed hot tips. 52.00 a year is all it takes.!
the email me at mailto:sampsms@ozemail.com.au and say sign me up for tips, and i reply with a pay pal button. they check and click and pay with pay pal..It's sp easy and it will help fund this portfolio.

story here
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2312137.htm

Then try to hunt down, the companies which might be exploring this area.
There may be more than one. I do know that SML Synergy metals - are one working in the area north of Bendigo. Right now they are cheap.. last week they were 4cents. check them out on the asx.
Look up others and see if you can find a good prospect. see if they would be worth some of yours (and mine) hard earned savings. you could try SML, BDG, MYC,MCO, HEG, GDR, GBM, CGT if you check then out in yahoo you have to add .ax to the code in the finance /investing pages. It just means aussie stocks.
The race is on kids... get moving.. Be part of a modern day internet gold rush...

Good news, bad news, good news.

2008-07-25T01:25:00.000-07:00

Hi kids,

Well the bad news first.
GDA Gondwanna had a consolidation a few months ago - where they reduced everyones' shares by 1:10. That means the 1000 I gave you is now only 100. But in theory they should have been now 30 cents each instead of 3 cents. (ie price when it happened.)
But they fell instead, and even now are not worth 10 times what I paid, (which was 5cents ea. = $50.00)
so WHY do they do a consolidation? probably they think they will look better if their shares are "worth" more than 3 cents. Maybe it reduces the shares issued and they can issue more later. I'm not sure. You investigate and tell me. But I prefer to have 35,000 instead of the now 3500, because I can sell some (if they double by 100% to 6 cents and still keep some.) The chances of a doubling from 30 cents to 60 cents in one go is lower.

Good news 1. This week, GDA sent notice of giving some free shares and some options. 1:8 shares plus 3 options for every 5 shares held. so you do your maths. how many of these free ones will be yours? based on your now share portfolio number of 100.

Good news 2. I feel bad, so I am giving you all another 900 shares in any of the companies below. HAW, AOS, EGO, EXM, GPN, LKO, MBP, MHL, MPJ, NWT, QUR, SML, RBY.
I hope and expect you will investigate them on the www.asx.com.au website.
LOOK AND SEE WHAT THEY DO, and decide which one you think has the best prospects for the shares TO RISE AND MAKE A PROFIT.

I want you to realise that while you can read, you can learn, and earn.

Then you must email me and say what company and its code, you want. I'll be interested to see what companies you think are the best ones in this group of 13. I am hoping you will be able to answer a few questions, based on the Learners and P platers pages linked below, because this is how you learn. You could even just Google them (by their full names) or go to Yahoo.com.au and checkout their codes in finance and investing.

You must reply to receive.
Hurry, don't miss out.
bye for now,
Nanny (your Granny)

2008-07-20T21:14:00.001-07:00

A cobweb can be a metaphor for many things. especially the web - the Internet - which has little search engine spiders crawling all over it for new feed..

I watched the BBC David Attenboroughs "Life in the Undergrowth" and he exposed a lot of things about spiders..
some - like the trapdoor, jump out at their prey, others like the Aussie red back make vertical curtain webs to catch insects.

Others make a large single web which they defend against the smaller thief spiders, who come and steal their "catch of the day". The small ones creep across the web, anchor the prey, and cut the lines, and make their escape.

Still others, are more collaborative, and they build masses of cobwebs all connected to each other.
They are small spiders (English ones) BUT their MASSIVE cobweb can catch a small bird and then they have a meal big enough to share. Which they do!
They are a community, much like the internet.
When we collaborate and share, we can achieve much more.

Rich DADS poor KIDS

2008-05-31T20:00:00.000-07:00

Is this you?
Daddy has always provided everything and you don't pay board, you don't go to work, and really you don't need much money?
You Don't NEED much, and what is worse you aren't motivated to provide for yourself or your own future..

You have to get Motivated......
You have to turn an idea into an EMOTIONAL NEED..
You have to WANT something. (even if that is just to succeed)
You need to learn how to Challenge yourself.
and sometimes you have to fail to succeed.

You have to learn that 'you are responsible for your own future'.
Follow your interest.. and turn your hobby or your passion into a business.
That will improve your chance of success.
learn how to start a small business, read a balance sheet, profit and loss statement and learn how to write a business plan. learn about tax minimisation and start your own little business.
Investing in the share market is a good place to start.

Remember we are not financial advisors.. Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only...We trade as Asset Management Consultants- we teach you about risk and how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach. Ref standards AS/NZS/ISO 90o1, AS/NZS/ISOISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.

go to our pages at http://www.megamoneybox.com/
and realise that learning is a life long achievement.

What is a Candlestick and why learn Maths

2008-04-16T18:29:00.000-07:00

What is a Candlestick and why learn Maths?
read my file and learn what the Japanese called candlesticks in the 1600's and how they used these to PREDICT whether the price of rice would rise or fall.

The Power of CandleStick Charting
For an example of a candlestic chart for FDL Flinders diamonds is on the right side of the blog.

Mega's Note: To see how to analyse the candlestick chart results - free - go to
www.candlesticker.com/default.asp
This site is provided by a person in Turkey – promoting a technique developed by a Japanese for anyone who wishes to learn.. like us in Australia!
The site below teaches you for a fee..of course! But the explanation is good. You can do candlestick charts in your on line market free software.
The Power of CandleStick Charting
Candlestick charting is great for traders wanting an extra edge in their quest for profits - this is due to the way the candle bodies are drawn, that gives a better insight that is visual, and shows trader psychology. More traders than ever are using candlestick charts due to the extra trading edge they can get with this form of charting. Candlestick charts are not new, and have been used for hundreds of years by Japanese traders to predict and act on market movements. Candlestick charting giving greater insight into human psychology
In the 1700's, Homma, a Japanese trader in rice, noticed how the price of rice was influenced by human psychology as much as the supply and demand situation. Homma used candlestick charts to trade rice and amassed a huge fortune in the markets. In fact, it was rumored he never to have had a single losing trade!
Human psychology has never changed, and has remained constant over time - candlestick charting is therefore just as useful today, as it was hundreds of years ago.
So why use Candlestick Charts?
1. They complement other Technical ToolsYou can use candlestick charts as you would use the common bar chart, and you can combine them with traditional market indicators. Candlestick charts are a great way to spot opportunities, and then filter, and time trades with other indicators.
2. Spotting trend changesBecause of the way candlestick charts are viewed, they can give warnings of market reversals, far more visually than traditional bar charts. If you look at candlestick charting, the human psychology of the move literally jumps out the page at you.
3. Straightforward to useCandlestick charts use, the same open, high, low and close data that traditional bar charts use, and are easy to draw. In addition, there are many packages like supercharts and tradestation that will draw them automatically for traders. The different candle names are also easy to remember.
4. Define market momentumsThe way the candlestick chart is drawn not only gives the direction of price, but also the momentum behind the move.The candlestick chart graphically illustrates the relationship behind the open, high, low, and close by the body - and adds an extra visual edge, due to the way they are drawn. The candlestick has a wide part, called the "real body." This real body represents the range between the open and close of that day's trading.
When filled in black, the real body means the close was lower than the open.
If the real body is empty, it means the opposite - the close was higher than the open.
Above and below the real body we see the "shadows." We see these as the wicks of the candle (which give them their name), and the shadows actually show the high and the low of the day's trading.
If the upper shadow on the filled-in body is short, it indicates that the open that day was closer to the high of the day. On the other hand, a short upper shadow on a white, or unfilled body shows the close was near the high.
A Visual Aid to Give You an Edge
Candlestick charts should be used rather than traditional bar charts because they give you an extra visual dimension.
Regardless, of whether you are a day trader, position trader, system trader or a trader who likes to make your own trades, there is really nothing to dislike about candlestick charts!
Easy and fun to use, and providing a greater insight into market moves, along with the ability to use in any type of trading, means if you aren’t already using candlestick charting, then its time to start.
To learn more on how you can incorporate the Power of CandleStick Charting into your trading, please click here.

What would be a good investment?

2008-01-19T19:11:00.000-08:00

I wrote a tip for NWT and why on my http://megamoneybox.blogspot.com/ and thought I would explain it in plain English for you. I'll also add how to and where to go.

One way to FIND a potential share to invest in, is to do this.

Go to Yahoo actives (volume leaders) first and then go to asx volume leaders.
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/actives?e=ax
http://www.asx.com.au/research/market_info/shares_by_volume.shtm
and compare the results. They are a little different.
Then go to the Yahoo gainers.
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/gainers?e=AX
In the volumes you will see the top 20 traded by the millions on that day. Which ones went up and which ones went down and by the %. You want to see the volumes because that tells you where the herd has been grazing. The "Herd", move about by rumour and announcement and tips. So go to your company's announcements to see what they are telling the market.(the herd)

When you see the shares you might be able to buy, in your price range.. example 1 cent to 10 cents. write down their codes. -create a word doc, copy and put them in and save. Add the links for later. You will notice the yahoo codes have added .AX on the end.

You need to add .AX on yahoo so they will look for Australian stock market codes. Naturally you are going to choose the ones which are rising.

Then go to asx.com.au and type in the company code in the company research page. . example NWT, GDA, GNL, FDL etc.
When you are on the asx homepage you will see a graph of the Australian share market, and the top 50 BIG companies listed with ^ in red or green. Your company won't be in the list because the top 50 includes only big companies which cost a lot of money for each share. Like the banks, BHP, Rio tinto etc. Look at them anyway, so you can see how much a company can trade each share for. Rio Tinto was over 100.00 each.

Then create a watchlist on asx.com.au or on Yahoo (its free). put in your codes and the current price with an amount for each. Say 1,000 shares. The watchlist adjusts automatically each day and tells you how much you would have made or lost on the day and how much money you would have accumulated.

Remember, when you sell, you get your investment back and PLUS your profit or if you sell at a loss the loss comes off your invesment.

Go to Http.megamoneybox.blogspot.com to read the tip which is selling at only .006 - less than 1 cent each.

Remember we (Sampson Management Services) are not financial advisors, we are Asset management Consultants who advise and teach on minimising risks according to the international standard ISO 4360. We teach about Quality ISo 9000 standard and also integrated systems for business management and improvement. These include Quality, Environmental, OHS and Risk management standards.

What's the difference between Rich kids and Poor kids?

2008-01-11T19:29:00.001-08:00

The 1st difference is this-
Education. Education. Education
NOT Ordinary education. NOT school. NOT the streets. I'll show you what I mean.

You do have to be able to read and write and have sufficient maths to calculate and manage your own and other people's money. Riches is about making and managing money.
Most importantly - you have to be willing to learn.

The 2nd difference is Creativity and an ability to solve problems. Problems are precious pearls. They teach you things. Problems solved are an inspiration. They teach you that you can now solve the next problem. Life's journey is all about solving problems.

The 3rd is having parents and relatives with a supportive Vision and experience. But that is not absolutely necessary. You can learn to be supportive of yourself. Treat yourself like your best friend.

I grew up poor and my mother said I might get a job in a factory or better still - work in a shop. My father said I had to leave school as soon as I turned 15, get a job, and leave home. The truant officer said I was so clever I could go to university. I wasn't even sure what University was.
I hung my head because I knew I wouldn't be allowed. I had no hope.
I said that my father would not let me go or pay for me.
The truant Officer didn't have enough understanding to tell me that I could go to University when I was 21 as a mature student, without my higher education level.
I wish he had given me some hope.

As I left school, I said to myself. "I'm not going to work in a factory. I'm going to work in an office, and one day I will own a shop", and I did. I started my own shop, designed and spent 3 months making the first lot of "stock".
I worked as a "bookkeeper" and later started an antique shop. I managed my shops as well as going to work. I went to university many years later and did very well, and changed careers.

So I know how much harder it is when you don't have a supportive family, but you can do it if you really want to. You just have to try and find what interests you. Why? Because you immerse yourself in what you enjoy. You don't notice how long it takes or how hard you work. If you are interested in your work as if it was a hobby, then it doesn't feel like work at all.

The 4th IS HAVING a belief based on what you have done before. Confidence. A willingness to try. Determination. An interest in learning.

The 5th is Being interested in people and how things work. People who try to make everyone feel welcome and at ease are what we call "people people". They are friendly, optimistic and supportive of others. They are the ones who succeed because good people want to work with them. They get the best out of others. They lift you up and treat you as a valued person.

the 6th is about being loved. Knowing you are loved. Loving yourself and wanting the best in life. This Page is about teaching you about making a life for yourself and about the business of making business.

The 7th is about FEELING RICH. Rich kids go about feeling rich. Their dad does this or that, and they have money in the bank. Poor kids FEEL poor, BUT WE ARE ALL RICH! Feeling rich is not just about money. It's about feeling grateful. Feeling lucky to be alive. Feeling healthy and free. Feeling the sun on our back and the wind in our hair. Feeling rich attracts riches! Why? Because when people feel rich they are usually smiling and look confident. They look friendly and trustworthy. People feel attracted to them because they want to be like that. If they are in business they will go to their shop or cafe or service station. Makes sense doesn't it? You have to be likeable if you want people to like you back.

8TH. Why should you want to be rich? (or just comfortable) Rich means having enough money to live. Not having the despair of living on the dole or unemployment payments.
Not being treated like a second class citizen.
Not being treated like a loser.
You want to feel proud of yourself and not owe anyone or anything.
You need money in life to pay for your food, clothing, house, car etc.

BUT RICHES means more than that. Riches helps you to help others. Riches means you can hope for a better future. And the most important thing about riches is that it teaches you to have goals.

You learn how to work for an "emotional goal." Emotional goals are the only true motivators. Motivation is what keeps you going.

You learn how to turn a wish into reality. A goal into an "emotional reward".
Like a red Ferrari. You aren't learning and trying just to become rich. You are doing this to get what you want! WHATEVER THAT IS. It could be that RED FERRARI or another car or house or holiday. It could just be the feeling of small step success. The pleasure of actually succeeding at what you said you would do. An emotional goal is setting a target for whatever you really want. BUT you have to want it.

The 9th and 10th reasons will be added later. When you have $7.00 (USD) you can invest in my book called "Rich kids Poor Kids". email me at sampsms@ozemail.com.au and go to http://www.megamoneybox.com/

Remember, Rich kids are taught about "riches" and richness.
They expect to be Rich.
I am trying to teach you about Riches and Richness here.

I want to share what I have learnt with you. Think of me as your University Granny.
Read the letter below. and you will start to see what I am talking about. I'll add more as time permits.

1st business Letter to my Grandchildren,
You might not have heard me talk about your shares being like little ships on the harbour, but the analogy is true. Think of them as small sailboats.
GDA (the codename) Gondwanna resources being one of about 2009 companies on the Australian stock market. The stock market is like a bank where people buy and sell shares (small parts of a company-usually one millionth. Think of an orange and break it up into all the tiny sections / fibres and customers buying and selling the shares. The prices go up when there are more people wanting to buy too few shares. The price goes down when there are few buyers and too many shares waiting to be sold.)
I said that these little boats are affected by what is happening in America and other places (China's boom etc). Things like - if a tsunami was about to happen, all the boats would try to go out to sea to save themselves, but the harbour entrance is narrow and they wouldn't all get out, so some would have to ride the waves, and hope for the best. Some would be swamped, while others would "get outa there" and sell (or jump overboard).
The trouble with selling in a storm is that you lose money.
Mega's first rule of investing is "don't lose money". If you don't sell you don't really lose- only on paper. While you hold and have a balance in your account, there is a high chance of the price rising again.
Well right now, America is going into a recession and the share market (the people who trade shares) is worried.
So if the 1000 shares I gave you were picked wisely you should be ok. Remember, they only cost less than 2 cents, (.019) so any rise is a bonus. the value of the redeemable voucher was $19.00 when I bought them but on the day I gave them to you, they were worth .055 or $55.00.
In 2001-7 years ago I bought 200 shares in David Jones -DJS- for $1.19 each. a very small parcel, but now they are worth $5.30 each so if I cashed them in I would get nearly one thousand dollars. If I leave them there they will probably grow a bit more.
Anyway, the share market is "led" by herd thinking. When the herd rush to buy a stock (or sell) others follow and the price is pushed up or down. Sometimes the herd panics and there is a stampede. So, you really want to know which way the herd is going, or put it in sailing terms- "which way the wind is blowing".
One way to find out is to look at the volume sold. These are quoted in the 100 thousands. and there is a page on the asx which tells you the highest volumes of buys and sells. Here it is below. Jan 11th 2008 was another down day when the market FELL by 12%-15%, (5 down days in a row) BUT GDA still had a high volume and sold for .044. They are still more than double their buy price.

Remember, rich kids are taught about "riches" and richness. They expect to be rich.
I am trying to teach you about riches here.

You might notice the pink coloured ones on the asx - they are on my watchlist so they are highlighted. You can make a watchlist on the asx for yourself. you can just put in companies you have "guessed"- and watch to see how they go. go to this link below on any day to see the high volumes. last means the latest price. this page does have cheapies -under 10 cents - listed if they have a high volume. If you go to Yahoo finance / investing / gainers , volume or losers,you won't see the cheapies under ten cents listed. They don't show them. So right now, I will be going through the cheapies here and putting them on a watchlist and may be buy some if their chart look as if it is rising. The asx webpage teaches you heaps free about investing. look onthe side bar and you will see education. go there and learn for free. I wish I had learnt all about it when I was your age. visit me at http://www.megamoneybox.com/

I'd like to think that this page has helped just one person. so send me your comments. It makes the effort worthwhile. Even Grannies need a supportive environment.

Bye for now, Nanny
go to and look.

http://www.asx.com.au/research/market_info/shares_by_volume.shtm

Good luck kids, soon you will be rich, and if not, you'll know how to trade shares and research your own. You will know that you could be richer, if you tried.